At Sedgefield the BNP's candidate Andrew Spence, of fuel protest fame, and previously of UKIP, won 9% of the vote. 9% is not enough to win a seat. Nor was it not enough to change the result by pulling votes from other parties.
But if the same 9% vote was cast for the BNP in a marginal seat, and the 9% had been pulled from one party more than another, such a vote could change the result very easily. UKIP, for example pulled 2% in the last general election, and thereby prevented around 30 seats from falling to the Conservatives, adding 25 seats to Labour, securing their majority, and presenting 5 seats to the Lib Dems. Without UKIP's paltry 2% vote, Labour's 60 seat majority might have been eliminated. (Christopher Booker, Sunday Telegraph)
The BNP have so far stood only in their hotspots such as in Yorkshire and East London. They have occasionally seemed close to winning a Westminster seat in Barking. They have not so far strayed out from their 'racial fault line' heartlands. So is the thought about whether they might be influential on the result of the next general election, only of academic interest?
They have also elected a few councillors here and there winning up to 30% in council elections, but surely they don't have the resources to spread out any further, and go national.
BNP's STRATEGY
If reports coming from within the Party are correct, the BNP could have an effect on the next general election of the kind I am describing, as they are setting up branches in 500 Constituencies. That would mean they will be standing in many marginals. If they start to poll 9% across these seats, the effect of the BNP standing, could be dramatic.
They have no media support, no radio, no TV but they have foot soldiers. BNP members are highly motivated and deliver literature to peoples' homes by wearing out shoe leather. The story put out by the main media is that they are racist beasts who must be stopped. This may be true, but it allows the BNP to surprise people by the common sense sounding literature they write. Some of the facts contained in their writing might need to challenged, but as the party are blanked by the media, they can write their own narratives unopposed. They are able to present themselves as victims of unfair media coverage.
SEDGEFIELD
The Sedgefield by-election showed the Conservatives' vote staying level, Lib Dem rising a little and only labour's vote falling. It seems from Sedgefield as if the advance of the BNP is going to hurt Labour the most. This is bound to start featuring in electoral calculations, and could be the key factor that stops Gordon Brown going to the polls in a hurry. Cameron might start to feel grateful for having the pressure taken off him (for now) by the BNP.
But we are not racist beasts. We are every True Brit who cares about their family and their future.
We will not be stopped and as our train starts to pick up speed, watch the carpet baggers from the other parties start to switch sides.
We are everywhere.
Posted by: Green Arrow | July 22, 2007 at 01:17 AM
The BNP does have a bad image. Its origins were racist. If it is dropping racist attitudes, I am delighted.
What normally happens when a small party starts growing, the big parties hastily copy its policies.
The BNP is harder to copy as it is more a narrative and a set of values than a fixed set of policies.
The current economic policies look a bit of a worry to be honest.
Posted by: tapestry | July 22, 2007 at 07:55 AM