Brown Bounce Does Not Exist

Labour must be worried.  The Brown bounce which was flagged as a 9% lead by YouGov, the internet polling organisation, looks as if it might all be hot air.  The 'bounce' has been the big media narrative for July whereby all stories that undercut the narrative get ignored, and all stories which reinforce the narrative get a boost. 

It is beginning to look like it could all be imaginary.

The first evidence for this came at Sedgefield where Labour's vote right in the middle of the supposed bounce fell from 59% to 44% or maybe even 41% if the ballot box tampering allegations prove to be correct.

http://www.typepad.com/t/app/weblog/post?__mode=edit_entry&id=36954402&blog_id=555190

Then the poll from ICM which only featured those who actually voted in the 2005GE showed that Labour are losing support amongst definite voters at twice the rate they are gaining., and Cameron is gaining support at twice the rate he is losing.

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/07/29/does-this-data-make-an-early-election-less-likely/

The only pollsters to report big leads for Brown during the bounce were ICM despite their having evidence that Brown's new support must be coming almost totally from previous non-voters and whose likelihood to actually vote should have been heavily discounted.

Now that Communicate Research have polled, and given Brown only a 3% lead, because they question the likelihood of many actually voting, the bounce looks as if it might have been much much smaller than the previous pollsters suggested. 

ICM Guardian were clearly involved in some dubious polling during this period and were caught out misrepresenting a poll to put Cameron under pressure.

http://www.order-order.com/2007/07/guardianicm-poll-nobody-likes-dave-and.html

The Brown Bounce is a media created story, which should have been taken with a big pinch of salt.

Comments

[ketchup]

"Now that Communicate Research have polled, and given Brown only a 3% lead, because they question the likelihood of many actually voting"

As do ICM you numpty.For christ sake actually do some research for once...
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2007/Guardian%20-%20july/guardian-jul-2007.asp

[tapestry]

hello ketchup. did you know your name is the indonesian word for sauce. quite appropriate. ICM Guardian are a sound polling organisation, but the Guardian seems to prefer extreme interpretations to their statistics to suit media narrative. No research needed. It's blinking obvious they're desperately trying to ham up the non-existent Brown bounce..